Despite the energy disruption caused by the Middle East conflict and renewed trade tensions, global growth is expected to slow only moderately to +2.5% in 2026 before rebounding to +2.9% in 2027. AI is emerging as the key offsetting force, boosting productivity across advanced economies, supporting semiconductor and data-centre infrastructure investment and sustaining global trade flows. However, this support is increasingly concentrated in a handful of sectors and regions, creating new risks if AI investment momentum weakens.
The UK outlook at a glance
With the Bank of England expected to raise rates to 4.0%, download our latest Economic Outlook to understand what higher rates, persistent cost pressures and elevated credit risks could mean for your business in the months ahead.
Beyond the UK: key 2026 global trends
1. AI cushions the global economy against geopolitical shocks
2. Geopolitical shocks are reshaping growth patterns across regions
The fallout from the Middle East conflict and renewed trade tensions is being felt unevenly around the world. Energy-importing economies remain more exposed to inflation and weaker growth, while AI-led investment and commodity exports are helping cushion the impact elsewhere. This divergence is creating a more fragmented global growth outlook as businesses navigate increasingly regionalised risks.
3. Corporate resilience is fading as profitability comes under pressure
Companies have so far absorbed the impact of higher energy costs and geopolitical disruption, but earnings pressure is building. Revenue expectations have been downgraded across most sectors, financing costs remain elevated and insolvencies are forecast to rise by +4% globally in 2026. The outlook favours sectors linked to AI, technology and data-centre infrastructure, while more leveraged and energy-intensive industries face growing profitability and credit risks.
Want the full global outlook?
Read the report here: Half-Time Outlook 2026-27 AI holds the score, growth slows to +2.5%
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