Allianz Trade
Global Survey

According to the 2026 Allianz Trade Global Survey, the conflict in the Middle East has not derailed export growth expectations but has reshuffled the risk map after a year of trade war. Taking the pulse of 6,000 companies across 13 markets¹, the survey was conducted in two waves over February and March 2026. It assesses the impact of the conflict on corporates’ expectations for exports, global trade, and supply chains.

“The Allianz Trade Global Survey reveals that 75% of exporters continue to expect positive export growth in 2026. The impact of the Middle East conflict seems moderate, even more when compared to the 2025 tariff shock, when expectations dropped by -40pp. Still, this optimism remains fragile and could quickly fade if the conflict drags on. Actually, Vietnamese, American and Spanish companies all lost more than -10pp of confidence due to the conflict, while Chinese corporates lost -9pp. The conflict pushed geopolitical and political risk as the leading threat globally for 65% of companies, overtaking supply chain complexity and concentration (45%), which was the top concern in 2025 amid the trade war. Supply-related issues, such as bankruptcy of supply and shortage of inputs, rose to second place (57%). However, less than a quarter of companies are worried about the shockwaves from the conflict on energy and shipping: either corporates are confident about their coping mechanisms or they expect the conflict to be short-lived”, explains Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade.

Despite this resilient confidence, the Middle East conflict is tightening trade finance conditions. Payment cycles are lengthening, and the share of corporates paid within 30 days has fallen from 10% to 7% since the start of the conflict, while those waiting beyond 70 days has risen from 15% to 24%. Looking ahead, 43% of companies expect payment terms to deteriorate further (+5pp vs pre-conflict). Non-payment risk has also deteriorated: the share of firms expecting higher risk has risen to 40% (+6pp vs pre-conflict). Pharmaceuticals, construction and computers/telecom are the most exposed sectors, while larger companies face disproportionately longer payment cycles.

UK businesses are increasingly pursuing market diversification as a key strategy to address global trade challenges. With 74% of UK firms actively exploring new markets — second only to China (75%) — diversification has become essential for spreading risk and reducing the impact of localised disruptions. This approach reflects the need for businesses to adapt to shifting trade dynamics, geopolitical risks, and economic volatility.

Expanding into new markets has become increasingly important for UK businesses that grapple with the dual challenges of rising energy costs and ongoing supply-chain disruptions. These pressures are underscored by the fact that 72% of UK firms have expressed significant concern about their ability to navigate these issues, highlighting the urgent need for diversification and resilience in their market strategies to mitigate risks and sustain growth.

While diversification is a priority, reshoring is also gaining traction, with 74% of UK firms in 2026 (up from 68% in 2025) anticipating that the trend towards switching to domestic suppliers or reshoring production will continue in the next two years. This dual strategy of reshoring and market diversification enables businesses to balance stability and growth. However, high production costs remain a challenge for reshoring, making diversification a more viable solution for many companies.

Despite a decline in overall ESG commitment (down from 84% in 2025 to 55% in 2026), sustainability remains a focus for some. The UK leads globally in green product investments, with 44% of firms prioritising sustainability despite broader challenges. This focus on green innovation could provide a competitive edge in emerging markets where environmental considerations are increasingly important.

“In the UK, the growing trend of reshoring highlights a strategic shift, with many businesses prioritising supply-chain resilience to address geopolitical uncertainties and reduce vulnerabilities. At the same time, market diversification has become a key focus, with nearly half of UK companies now targeting markets outside of Europe to mitigate risks and seize emerging opportunities. This shift is particularly significant given that 60% of respondents have experienced supply-chain disruptions over the past year. By entering new markets, businesses are not only spreading risk but also tapping into regions with higher growth potential. Additionally, 57% of UK firms expect export non-payment risks to stay stable, while 75% report favourable payment terms — above the global average of 68% —with most payments received within 30–70 days. These conditions provide a strong foundation for UK companies to expand internationally with confidence,” adds Matt Williams, CEO of Allianz Trade, UK & Ireland.

Through a combination of market diversification, reshoring, and strategic adaptation, UK businesses are positioning themselves to overcome global trade challenges and capitalise on emerging opportunities. This focus on resilience and growth ensures that UK businesses remain competitive in an increasingly uncertain world.

Since the beginning of the trade war in 2025, firms have implemented mitigation strategies to adapt to the new environment. Those with long-supply chains² have been the most reactive and notably more prone to source from new suppliers and reroute than the overall sample. The most common coping mechanisms have been inventory building and diversification to new markets (64% each), as well as sourcing from new suppliers (63%) pointing to a broad-based effort to de-risk both demand and supply exposure. This is followed by rerouting through third markets (57%), confirming that firms are also adapting logistics to bypass trade frictions.

“Since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, 50% of firms are seeking alternative shipping routes or carriers, especially in Vietnam (60%). The second most popular strategy (50%) is working with customs brokers to expediate clearance, especially in Vietnam (64%) and India (56%). Third is adjusting delivery schedules for 48% of them, mainly in France, Brazil, India, UK and US. By contrast, changes to Incoterms (36%) remain more limited, suggesting that contractual adjustments lag operational ones”, states Ano Kuhanathan, Head of corporate research at Allianz Trade.

The trade war has reduced the attractiveness of the US for exporters: only 13% consider it a growth market. Amid supply-chain reconfiguration and recent FTAs, Europe and Asia are prioritized for future growth, as businesses increasingly look for stability and market openness. Interest in Europe as an export destination has grown across the board with Singaporean (+10pp vs 2025) and US (+9pp vs 2025) exporters showing the strongest increase in appetite. Asia remains the preferred offshore destination overall, though China's investment appeal has collapsed, with only 23% (-30pp from 2025) firms planning to increase their footprint, even if only 10% are actively planning to exit.

“Growth opportunities are being reinforced by a wave of new trade agreements: 93% of firms plan to expand on recently signed FTAs such as India-EU and MERCOSUR-EU, with India, Brazil, Vietnam and France emerging as priority markets. Yet the full potential of these agreements remains constrained: non-tariff barriers, particularly licensing and certification requirements, continue to be the dominant friction limiting firms from converting trade agreement access into actual export growth”, ends Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade.

¹ _{Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Poland, Singapore, Spain, the UAE, the UK, the US and Vietnam.}

² _{i.e. more than 50% of production abroad.}

About Allianz Trade

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Allianz Trade is the global leader in trade credit insurance and a recognized specialist in the areas of surety, collections, structured trade credit and political risk. Our proprietary intelligence network is based on instant access to data of 289 million corporates. We give companies the confidence to trade by securing their payments. We compensate your company in the event of a bad debt, but more importantly, we help you avoid bad debt in the first place. Whenever we provide trade credit insurance or other finance solutions, our priority is predictive protection. But, when the unexpected arrives, our AA credit rating means we have the resources, backed by Allianz to provide compensation to maintain your business. Headquartered in Paris, Allianz Trade is present in over 40 countries with 5,900 employees. In 2025, our consolidated turnover was € 4 billion and insured global business transactions represented € 1,400 billion in exposure.