Economic & Trade Risk Insights

The global rise in business insolvencies is not just a cyclical correction; it’s driven by structural challenges that will keep failure rates high through 2026. Despite Western Europe showing a modest decrease in 2026, the overall global index is set to rise again by +5%. This FAQ addresses the three critical structural factors that businesses must manage to survive the prolonged economic headwinds.

The global business environment faces a prolonged period of elevated risk. Allianz Research expects global business insolvencies to rise by +6% in 2025, and again by +5% in 2026, before a modest decline in 2027. This marks the fifth consecutive year of increases, pushing global bankruptcies +24% above the pre-pandemic average. This sustained surge is driven primarily by North America and Asia, underscoring the necessity for robust credit risk management.

The trade war initiated by the Trump administration's sweeping import duties (an effective rate of 11% by August 2025 ) has reshaped global trade flows without yet triggering the mass insolvency wave many feared in the US. However, the reprieve is temporary, and the risk has simply been delayed, not dodged. This deep dive explores the mechanism that shielded the US and reveals the significant financial burden now shifting to export-driven economies, particularly in Europe.