Sector Atlas 2025: Trade war is a sector war after all

Executive Summary

• US tariffs are reshaping supply chains, prompting retaliation and heightening uncertainty. Companies will continue to adapt as the trade war is here to stay.
• The global sector risk picture remains cautious, and firms will continue to reduce cross-border risks. 
• The good: IT services and pharma remain safe havens through solid demand and relocation strategies that circumvent tariffs.
• The bad: A second cluster of sectors benefits from positive structural trends but are vulnerable to policies, geopolitics and trade tensions.
• The ugly: for a wide group of sectors (highly cyclical, capital intensive and protectionist; limited coping), profitability is under pressure. 
• Transatlantic update: the corporate earnings gap between Europe and the US looks intact.