Pixels of crisis: A granular look at the risks of non-payment due to the conflict in the Middle East
The Middle East conflict and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz have led to a broad-based reassessment of non-payment risks, with country downgrades outweighing upgrades.
The war in the Middle East sets the stage. For the US and Europe, we expect lower growth, higher inflation, stronger fiscal pressure and a challenging situation for central banks.
Signal without response: Why the EU ETS needs resolve, not redesign
The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) is at a political and structural inflection point, with allowance prices falling sharply by around -24% in the first two months of 2026.
Not all Emerging Markets are equal: Hormuz, triple deficits, and the new energy risk premium
An extended conflict beyond three months could spark a second wave of effects via supply disruptions and stronger inflationary shocks, with Asian economies most at risk.
Allianz Social Resilience Index 2025: The Middle-Resilience Trap
In 2025, the Allianz Social Resilience Index (SRI) records a third consecutive – albeit modest – improvement, but underlying divergence remains pronounced.
The second energy shock: Why Europe still isn’t energy secure
Strategic autonomy has become Europe’s north star in an increasingly fragmented world, almost ten years after President Macron’s first Sorbonne speech.
