The war in the Middle East sets the stage. For the US and Europe, we expect lower growth, higher inflation, stronger fiscal pressure and a challenging situation for central banks.
Signal without response: Why the EU ETS needs resolve, not redesign
The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) is at a political and structural inflection point, with allowance prices falling sharply by around -24% in the first two months of 2026.
Not all Emerging Markets are equal: Hormuz, triple deficits, and the new energy risk premium
An extended conflict beyond three months could spark a second wave of effects via supply disruptions and stronger inflationary shocks, with Asian economies most at risk.
Allianz Social Resilience Index 2025: The Middle-Resilience Trap
In 2025, the Allianz Social Resilience Index (SRI) records a third consecutive – albeit modest – improvement, but underlying divergence remains pronounced.
The second energy shock: Why Europe still isn’t energy secure
Strategic autonomy has become Europe’s north star in an increasingly fragmented world, almost ten years after President Macron’s first Sorbonne speech.
Closing the gender income gap: from paycheck to pension
Women have made measurable progress over recent decades in narrowing gender pay gaps and increasing labor-force participation – but structural gaps persist.
Conflict in the Middle East: Implications for markets and macro
The US-Israeli strikes on Iran will have implications for energy markets, shipping costs, inflation risks and financial conditions – but everything hinges on how long the conflict lasts.
-(2).jpeg)