Economic Insights

Nov 23, 2022

Black Friday for consumers, Bleak Friday for retailers?

For the holiday season, retailers will have to strike the best possible balance between volumes and prices, on the one hand, and profitability and liquidity on the other.

Nov 18, 2022

Financial globalization: moving towards a polarized system?

Since 2009, the role of the Chinese yuan in the global financial system has nearly doubled, just surpassing the Japanese yen and British pound.

Nov 15, 2022

Africa’s journey to net zero: USD7trn just for energy

The green energy transition is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for African development, a chance to reduce poverty and lift growth potential.

Nov 10, 2022

Fixed income is back

In 2023, fixed income should regain some attractiveness from a risk-adjusted perspective and may prove interesting in the current volatile environment.

Nov 09, 2022

US midterms: Republicans are back, (fiscal) policy impasses too

With the Republicans now controlling the US House, political gridlocks mean no major economic and fiscal legislation will be pushed through in the next two years.

Nov 04, 2022

EU fiscal rules – quo vadis?

The EU Commission is expected to propose the most ambitious overhaul of the European fiscal framework in more than two decades.

Nov 03, 2022

Picking up contagion in equity and commodity markets

Our contagion indicator, albeit now lower than in early 2009, has not fallen to the lower levels experienced in 1982 or 2003. The time may have come to start building up long positions, but it still looks too early to go “all-in”.

Oct 28, 2022

Brazilian elections: the calm before the storm?

Unlike in previous elections, there are few signs of politically driven stress on Brazilian markets. Yet, Brazilian markets are in for a reality check in 2023.

Oct 27, 2022

Energy crisis, interest rates shock and untampered recession could trigger a wave of bankruptcies

After two years of declines, we expect a broad-based acceleration in business insolvencies (+10% in 2022 and +19% in 2023 at a global level).