Economic Insights

Nov 04, 2022

EU fiscal rules – quo vadis?

The EU Commission is expected to propose the most ambitious overhaul of the European fiscal framework in more than two decades.

Nov 03, 2022

Picking up contagion in equity and commodity markets

Our contagion indicator, albeit now lower than in early 2009, has not fallen to the lower levels experienced in 1982 or 2003. The time may have come to start building up long positions, but it still looks too early to go “all-in”.

Oct 28, 2022

Brazilian elections: the calm before the storm?

Unlike in previous elections, there are few signs of politically driven stress on Brazilian markets. Yet, Brazilian markets are in for a reality check in 2023.

Oct 27, 2022

Energy crisis, interest rates shock and untampered recession could trigger a wave of bankruptcies

After two years of declines, we expect a broad-based acceleration in business insolvencies (+10% in 2022 and +19% in 2023 at a global level).

Oct 21, 2022

Market Volatility and Corporate Bonds: Collateral Damage

ver the last few months, more aggressive monetary tightening, especially in the US, has led a steep sell-off in public debt markets, resulting in unprecedented interest rate volatility.

Oct 20, 2022

Can the booming battery sector help Europe with its energy crisis?

The global energy storage market is expected to grow 15 to 19-fold by 2030, mostly stemming from the US and China, with cumulative energy storage capacity totaling 400 to 500 GW.

Oct 14, 2022

‘Whatever it takes’ reloaded? Europe’s fiscal response to the energy crisis

While fiscal support in Europe will significantly reduce the impact of higher energy prices on real disposable incomes and soften the blow on demand, it could slow down the reduction in inflation rates.

Oct 12, 2022

Allianz Global Wealth Report 2022: The last hurrah

Global financial assets are set to decline by more than -2% in 2022, the first significant destruction of financial wealth since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008.

Oct 05, 2022

Globalization 2.0: Can the US and EU really “friendshore” away from China?

Globalization is changing, not dying, but mounting geopolitical tensions are pushing the US and Europe towards reducing their dependence on China. Yet ‘friendshoring’ is easier said than done.