Economic Insights

Apr 21, 2022

Corporate credit: straddle or struggle?

Current market positioning does not suggest a broad-based credit risk deterioration over the near term, with investors anticipating a pseudo-straddle payout distribution from holding corporate credit risk.

Apr 20, 2022

The cost of the zero-Covid policy for China and the world

China is facing the worst outbreaks of Covid-19 since the first quarter of 2020 and policy support will not be enough to cushion the blow to domestic demand.

Apr 13, 2022

200bps more - Will the Fed hike the economy into recession?

There are signs that a rapid hiking cycle could narrow the window for a “soft landing”.

Apr 08, 2022

Emerging market sovereigns: turbulent times ahead?

Financial tightening in advanced economies and slowing trade growth have created less favorable conditions for emerging market sovereigns, which have been amplified by the effects of the war in Ukraine on commodity prices.

Capital market impact of French elections

Apr 06, 2022

French presidential elections: “Don’t panique!”

Unlike 2017 the delicate phase for investors lies between the first and second round.

Apr 01, 2022

How green is the French Presidential campaign?

France faces an investment gap of 0.7% of GDP to meet its climate targets.

Mar 30, 2022

Is fashion retail falling out of fashion?

Amid lower economic growth, retailers could face a -EUR4.85bn hit to fashion consumer spending for 2022.

Mar 25, 2022

Germany: limiting economic pain from going cold turkey on Russian gas

Should gas supplies from Russia come to a halt, we estimate Germany’s supply gap at 30% of total gas consumption.

Mar 25, 2022

Global trade: Battling out of demand and price shocks

The invasion of Ukraine and renewed Covid-19 outbreaks in China are hitting global trade with a double whammy in 2022: lower volumes and higher prices.