Allianz Trade Global Survey 2025: Trade war, trade deals and their impacts on companies

Executive Summary

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• The unpredictability of US trade policy has dented exporters’ confidence: 42% of exporting companies now anticipate turnover to decline between -2% and -10% over the next 12 months – compared to fewer than 5% before “Liberation Day”. Conducted across approximately 4,500 companies in China, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Singapore, Spain, the UK and the US in two waves over March and April 2025, the Allianz Trade Global Survey reveals that close to 60% of firms expect a negative impact from the full-fledged trade war initiated by the Trump administration on 2 April, also called “Liberation Day”.
• More than half of exporters anticipate longer payment terms, with delays to exceed seven days in half of the cases. Only 11% of export companies continue to be paid within 30 days, but this figure is notably lower among top exporters like the US, China and Germany. Approximately 70% of companies receive payments between 30 and 70 days, with the UK (75%), France (73%), Italy (73%) and the US (73%) slightly more numerous than peers.
• Firms are pushing costs on others: from raising prices on their customers to leaving customs duties to their suppliers. Despite recent positive developments, price hikes are likely to remain the go-to strategy globally to counter tariff impacts, especially in the US where 54% of firms said they would do so after “Liberation Day” (compared with 46% before).