Old trade routes for new trade wars?

Executive Summary

• In a world divided by geopolitics, protectionism and the effects of climate change, global trade is forging new paths. Commerce is increasingly taking place between geopolitically aligned economies, with the US moving imports away from China, the EU sharply cutting trade with Russia and China’s trade now dominated by developing economies in Asia, Latin America and Africa.
• Established routes still carry more than half of global trade. However, global logistics have become more vulnerable to shocks since the pandemic and a significant supply disruption can result in a temporary doubling of container freight rates.
• Meanwhile, new routes are emerging to increase supply chain resilience, avoid cost pressure and amid increasing South-South connections. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, major shifts have taken place along trade routes connecting China and Europe, and India and Europe. 
• Amid these shifts, new trade and manufacturing hubs are redrawing the global map. Our updated ranking of Next Generation Trade Hubs for 2025 shows economies repositioning across three tiers – multimodal, logistical and intermediate – as tariffs, sanctions and supply-chain shifts reshape global flows.