Economic Insights

Nov 28, 2024

What to Watch 28 November 2024

The 3-3-3 Secretary Bessent paradox in the US, France’s budget turmoil and Central Europe losing competitiveness

Nov 27, 2024

From Cyber Monday to Black Friday: how the retail sector is navigating year-round challenges

Retail sales are still strong in the US and recovering in Europe, but uncertainty could derail the ongoing improvement

Nov 21, 2024

What to Watch 21 November 2024

What President Trump means for energy, earnings winter for European corporates, and taking stock after 29 COPs

Nov 18, 2024

Little fires everywhere: How polarization is shaping the economy (and what do to about it)

In 2024, societies are showing more signs of stability and social resilience, but the frequency and severity of civil unrest is increasing in several countries.

Nov 15, 2024

What to Watch 15 November 2024

The cost of uncertainty in Germany, the finishing touch of the Chinese stimulus and all eyes on Brazil while this COP is in Baku

Nov 14, 2024

The geoeconomic playbook of global trade

A renewed but contained trade war could cost global trade growth 0.6pp in 2026, while a full-blown trade war would cost up to 2.4pps.

Nov 07, 2024

What to Watch 07 November 2024

President Trump’s victory at the US elections and the likely full Republican control of the Congress do not change our forecasts for US GDP much, with fiscal loosening likely to broadly offset growth-negative factors

Oct 31, 2024

What to watch 31 October 2024

Fed taking it slow, UK budget done, diverging growth in the Eurozone and market volatility before and after the US elections

Oct 24, 2024

What to Watch 24 October 2024

From agreement to action at COP16 in Cali, nuclear energy and the race to net zero and the “Big Stay” in Eurozone labor markets