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Allianz Trade Export Forecast

The Allianz Trade Export Forecast takes into account a wide range of data relevant to the Swiss export industry. 

The Allianz Trade Export Forecast takes into account a wide range of data relevant to the Swiss export industry. Leading indicators of industry, transport, financial and commodity markets as well as new sentiment indicators are taken into account. Around 100 components flow into a dynamic, predictive model in which data series with a stronger lead are weighted higher. The Allianz Trade Export Forecast has a lead time of up to six months compared to the actual exports of the Swiss export industry.

 

forecast october
Export Forecast, October 2024: Allianz Trade Export Forecast – approaching the long-term trend

The Allianz Trade Export Forecast stood at –0.12 points at the beginning of October. Six months ago, the indicator was at –0.47 points. The barometer is thus approaching the long-term nominal trend growth of 4 percent a year once again. The prospects are therefore good for the Swiss export industry, which proved to be relatively robust in the first half of 2024. However, storm clouds are gathering again in the global industrial sector.

 

 Read the full report here

 

forecast august
Export Forecast, August 2023: Allianz Trade Export Forecast – upward trend halted

The Allianz Trade Export Forecast stands at –1.26 points in August 2023 (May: –0.79 points). The upward trend has been broken. However, the latest data do at least suggest that the indicator may have bottomed out. The environment nevertheless remains extremely challenging for the economy and the export business in particular. Fortunately, the continued solidity of the labour markets is providing an important foundation for consumer confidence and the overall economy.

 

 Read the full report here

 

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